Yesterday, an asteroid
estimated to be up to 100 feet wide made a close shave with Earth, as it soared
past at a distance of just 27,000 miles above the surface – or, as some scientists
have put it, 'damn close.' The house-sized space rock, dubbed asteroid 2012
TC4, is about 30-100 feet (10-30 metres) in size, and flew by at just
one-eighth of the distance between Earth and the moon.
While the asteroid missed
our planet on this occasion, experts have warned that we may not be so lucky in
the future. During another pass in 2079, experts predict that there is a chance
2012 TC4 will smash into Earth, with odds of this happening placed at about one
in 750.
Following yesterday's pass,
the asteroid's next 'close-approaches' to Earth will take place in 2019, 2050
and 2079.
And while 2012 TC4 is
expected to miss our planet in 2019 and 2050, experts say that in 2079 we may
not be so lucky.
Rudiger Jehn, a mission
analyst at the European Space Agency, said: 'We know today that it will also
not hit the Earth in the year 2050, but the close flyby in 2050 might deflect
the asteroid such that it could hit the Earth in the year 2079.'
The odds of an impact 62
years from now are now placed at about one in 750.
During yesterday's close
approach, NASA had the opportunity to test its network of observatories for its
planetary defense system, in the event an asteroid did actually hit Earth. The space agency is yet to
confirm that it was able to test the system.
Speaking before the asteroid
passed by, Dr Michael Kelly, a scientist working on the Nasa TC4 observation
campaign, said: 'Scientists have always appreciated knowing when an asteroid
will make a close approach to and safely pass the Earth because they can make
preparations to collect data to characterise and learn as much as possible
about it.
'This time we are adding in
another layer of effort, using this asteroid flyby to test the worldwide
asteroid detection and tracking network, assessing our capability to work
together in response to finding a potential real asteroid threat.'
ESA scientists tracked the
house-sized space rock using the European Southern Observatory's Very Large
Telescope in Chile this summer.
They expected the asteroid
to return for a near-Earth rendezvous this year, but did not know just how
close it would come. The latest observations, made on July 27, 31, and then
again on August 5, revealed 2012 TC4 would pass within one eighth of the moon's
distance from the planet.
During the pass, it shaved
past Earth at a distance of around 44,000 kilometres (27,300 miles) - far
enough out to just miss our geostationary satellites, according to
calculations. 'It's damn close,' said Rolf Densing, who heads the European
Space Operations Centre in Darmstadt, Germany.
'The farthest satellites are
36,000 kilometres (22,400 miles) out, so this is indeed a close miss,' he said.
'As close as it is right
now, I think this prediction is pretty safe, meaning that it will miss.'
If the asteroid did hit
Earth, it could have ultimately led to a much more high devastating level of
impact than the 18 meter (59 foot) asteroid that hit the city of Chelyabinsk in
Russia in 2013.
That one particular blast
injured about 1,500 people, and damaged more than 7,000 buildings, and experts
now say 2012 TC4 is 'something to keep an eye on.'
If it had made impact with
Earth's atmosphere, scientists predicted the space rock would burn up before
hitting the surface.
During the pass, NASA hoped
to use its international network of observatories to recover, track and
characterize 2012 TC4.
'This is the perfect target
for such an exercise because while we know the orbit of 2012 TC4 well enough to
be absolutely certain it will not impact Earth, we haven't established its
exact path just yet,' said Paul Chodas, a manager working on the project.
'It will be incumbent upon
the observatories to get a fix on the asteroid as it approaches, and work
together to obtain follow-up observations than make more refined asteroid orbit
determinations possible.'
Via Dailymail