A new report has warned there's an existential risk to
humanity from the climate crisis within the coming decades, and a "high
likelihood of human civilization coming to an end" over the next three
decades unless urgent action is taken.
The
report, published by Australian thinktank the Breakthrough National Centre
for Climate Restoration, outlines an apocalyptic scenario that could see conditions
"beyond the threshold of human survivability" across much of our
planet by 2050. Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related
security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.
The report refuses to downplay its bleak assessment of
what could happen, warning of "an existential risk to
civilization [..] posing permanent large negative consequences to humanity
that may never be undone, either annihilating intelligent life or permanently
and drastically curtailing its potential."
The authors argue we are now in a unique situation with no
precise historical equivalent, with temperatures unlike anything humanity has
ever experienced, and a population of nearly 8 billion people. This
requires us to work towards avoiding catastrophic possibilities rather
than looking at probabilities, as learning from mistakes
is not an option when it comes to existential risks.
With that in mind, they propose a plausible and terrifying
"2050 scenario" whereby humanity could face irreversible collapse in
just three decades. So, here goes:
2020-2030
Governments fail to act on the evidence that the Paris
Agreement isn't enough to keep Earth's temperature from rising, and will
"lock in at least 3°C of warming". As projected by previous studies, carbon
dioxide levels have reached 437 parts per million, which hasn't been seen in
the last 20 million years. The planet warms by 1.6°C (2.8°F).
2030-2050
Emissions peak in 2030 and are reduced. However, carbon
cycle feedbacks and the continued use of fossil fuels see temperatures rise by 3°C
(5.4°F) by 2050.
2050
By 2050 there's a scientific consensus that we reached the
tipping point for ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic well before
2°C (3.6°F) of warming, and for widespread permafrost at 2.5°C (4.5°F).
A "Hothouse
Earth" scenario plays out that sees Earth's temperatures doomed
to rise by a further 1°C (1.8°F) even if we stopped emissions immediately.
Read more here.
Bakti gul .@.com
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